2026 National climate change risk assessment

A core part of the Commission's role is to independently assess the risks that Aotearoa New Zealand faces from the current and future effects of climate change.

These include risks to the natural environment, economy and financial systems, built environment, and other areas. 

The 2026 national climate change risk assessment will identify the most significant risks to Aotearoa New Zealand’s economy, society, environment, and ecology. We will assess the nature of the risks, their severity, and the need for coordinated actions to respond to them. This will help inform the government's next national adaptation plan, expected in 2028.

Read more about what makes a climate risk.

Natural environment

The natural environment domain includes all aspects of the natural environment that support the full range of our indigenous species, he kura taiao – living treasures, and the ecosystems they form in terrestrial, freshwater, coastal and marine environments.

There are strong links between the natural environment and other domains – particularly the Māori; people and communities; and economic sectors that rely on the natural environment domains. This mean that impacts on New Zealand’s natural environment have cascading impacts in other domains.

Elements at risk in the natural environment:

• Coastal ecosystems
• Freshwater ecosystems
• Marine ecosystems
• Terrestrial ecosystems
• Indigenous biodiversity (from invasive species and pathogens)

Built environment – buildings, urban spaces and infrastructure

The built environment domain refers to the set and configuration of buildings, urban spaces and infrastructure. This includes transport, energy, three waters (drinking, storm and waste), waste management and flood management assets and infrastructure.

Impacts on Aotearoa New Zealand’s built environment have flow on effects for other domains, particularly the people and communities domain and the economy and finance domain.

Elements at risk in the built environment:

• Water infrastructure
• Buildings
• Waste management infrastructure
• Ports and airports
• Road and rail networks 
• Electricity and telecommunications infrastructure 
• Electricity supply

Economy and financial system

The economy and financial system domain considers production, distribution, trade and consumption of goods and services, economic costs, and finance and insurance markets – essentially, what happens to and within the economy that affects people and their livelihoods. 

Elements at risk in the economy and financial system:

• Central and local government funding
• Stability of the financial system
• Insurability of assets
• Businesses and public organisations (from supply and distribution disruptions)

Governance

Governing architecture and processes of interaction and decision-making that exist in and between governments, economic and social institutions. Governance extends through all aspects of Aotearoa New Zealand, from the partnership between iwi/Māori and the Crown under Te Tiriti o Waitangi / Treaty of Waitangi to the relationship between local government and communities, and across the economy, built environment and natural ecosystems.

Elements at risk in governance:

• Enduring adaptation governance
• Effective adaptation implementation
• Legitimacy of democratic institutions (from contested climate decision-making)
• Ability to uphold Te Tiriti o Waitangi / Treaty of Waitangi in adaptation governance and implementation.

People, health and communities

This domain encompasses people’s identity, health, sense of community and social norms, and cultural values and traditions. This domain has particular links to the natural environment domain, built environment domain, economy and finance domain, and Māori domain.

Elements at risk for people, health and communities:

• Social cohesion and wellbeing (from displacement)
• Physical health
• Mental health
• Ability of emergency management system to respond
• Social infrastructure and community services

Sectors relying on the natural environment

This domain focuses on sectors whose economic productivity is directly linked to the natural environment, as they will experience more direct impacts of climate change than other sectors of Aotearoa New Zealand’s economy. This includes the primary industries (pastoral agriculture, horticulture, fisheries and forestry), and tourism. This domain has particular links to the natural environment domain, the te ao Māori domain, and the economy and finance domain.

Elements at risk for sectors relying on the natural environment:

• Pastoral agriculture
• Horticulture
• Forestry
• Tourism
• Fisheries

Ngā mea hirahira o te ao Māori | Things of importance in te ao Māori

This domain considers Māori interests and investments, health and wellbeing, culture and practices. It links with all other domains.

For the 2026 NCCRA, the assessment for this domain is being conducted by an external provider.

Elements at risk for ngā mea hirahira o te ao Māori:

• Māori health vulnerabilities
• Access to taonga species
• Māori infrastructure
• Māori primary industries
• Tikanga and hapū/iwi identity
• Indigenous knowledge systems
• Legal exclusion and governance for Māori