2026 National Climate Change Risk Assessment

Every six years, the Commission will produce a report that provides a national picture of how Aotearoa New Zealand may be affected by climate change-related hazards. 

We are currently working on the 2026 National Climate Change Risk Assessment, which will be the first one produced by the Commission.

In November 2024–March 2025, we called for evidence related to this project. Read more about this call for evidence on our consultation platform.

June 2025: We are now seeking expressions of interest from independent experts to join our expert review groups. These groups will help us ensure our evidence base is balanced and reflective of current knowledge, and that our assessment is rigorous and fair. Experts will focus on whether we have identified the correct risks, not overlooked any significant factors in the analysis, and drawn sensible conclusions. Read more and find out how to apply.

A core part of the Commission's role is to independently assess the risks that Aotearoa New Zealand faces from the current and future effects of climate change.

These include impacts related to sea level rise and heavy rainfall, cyclones and extreme weather events, erosion and landslides, warmer temperatures and heatwaves, and droughts, dry spells and wildfires.

The 2026 National Climate Change Risk Assessment will identify the most significant risks to Aotearoa New Zealand’s economy, society, environment, and ecology. We will assess the nature of the risks, their severity, and the need for coordinated actions to respond to them.

Different communities, sectors and ecosystems will experience different impacts from climate change.

Assessing the risks they face involves looking at three elements: the types of hazards, and their exposure and vulnerability to those hazards.

• Climate hazards can be gradual changes (such as sea level rise, warming temperatures and changing seasonal weather patterns) or extreme events (such as cyclones, droughts and wildfires). While extreme events are not necessarily caused by climate change, it makes them more frequent and more severe.
• Exposure is the presence of people or things of value in areas at risk from a hazard. For example, buildings and infrastructure located in a low-lying area on a floodplain are exposed to flooding. 
• Vulnerability relates to factors that influence how much a hazard may impact a community or things of value This includes factors that affect the degree of impact (sensitivity) and the abililty to cope and change (adaptive capacity). For example, in a flood, a community with an older population is likely to be more vulnerable than one with more working age people.

Natural environment

The natural environment domain includes all aspects of the natural environment that support the full range of our indigenous species, he kura taiao – living treasures, and the ecosystems they form in terrestrial, freshwater and marine environments.

There are strong links between the natural environment and other domains – particularly the Māori; people and communities; and economic sectors that rely on the natural environment domains. This mean that impacts on New Zealand’s natural environment have cascading impacts in other domains.

Key risks to the natural environment:

• Coastal environments and biodiversity
• Freshwater environments and biodiversity
• Marine environments and biodiversity
• Terrestrial environments and biodiversity
• Indigenous biodiversity

Built environment – buildings, urban spaces and infrastructure

The built environment domain refers to the set and configuration of buildings, urban spaces and infrastructure. This also includes energy, three waters (drinking, storm and waste), waste management and flood management assets and infrastructure.

Impacts on Aotearoa New Zealand’s built environment have flow on effects for other domains, particularly the people and communities domain and economy domain.

Key risks to the built environment:

• Infrastructure networks from cascading failures
• Potable water supplies and wastewater and stormwater systems 
• Buildings
• Waste management infrastructure
• Ports, airports and associated infrastructure 
• Linear transport networks 
• Electricity and telecommunications infrastructure 
• Energy supply 

Economy and financial system

The economy domain considers production, distribution, trade and consumption of goods and services, economic costs, and finance and insurance markets – essentially, what happens to and within the economy affects people and their livelihoods. 

Key risks to the economy and financial system:

• Cost to central and local government
• Financial system
• Insurability of assets
• Economic impact of climate change on business and public organisations 

Governance

Governing architecture and processes of interaction and decision-making that exist in and between governments, economic and social institutions. Governance extends through all aspects of Aotearoa New Zealand, from the Treaty partnership between Māori and the Government (the Crown) to the relationship between local government and communities, and across the economy, built environment and natural ecosystems.

Key risks to governance:

• Regulatory certainty and strategic and enduring governance
• Fragmented institutional arrangements and capacity constraints
• Ability of democratic institutions to follow due democratic decision-making processes
• Treaty of Waitangi/Te Tiriti o Waitangi

People, health and communities

This domain encompasses people’s identity, health, sense of community and social norms, and cultural values and traditions. This domain has particular links to the natural environment domain, built environment domain, economy domain, and Māori domain.

Key risks to people, health and communities:

• Social cohesion, community and cultural wellbeing
• Equity
• Physical health
• Mental health, identity, autonomy and sense of belonging and wellbeing
• Ability of emergency management system to respond
• Social infrastructure and community services

Sectors relying on the natural environment

For sectors whose economic productivity is directly linked to the natural environment, and so will experience more direct impacts of climate change than other sectors of Aotearoa New Zealand’s economy. This includes the primary industries (livestock agriculture, horticulture, fisheries and forestry), tourism, and energy. The primary industries and tourism make up a large portion of Aotearoa New Zealand’s economy. This domain has particular links to the natural environment domain, the Māori domain, and the economy domain.

Key risks to sectors relying on the natural environment:

• Livestock agriculture
• Horticulture
• Forestry
• Tourism
• Fisheries

Ngā mea hirahira o te ao Māori | Things of importance in te ao Māori

This domain considers Māori interests and investments, health and wellbeing, culture and practices.

For the 2026 NCCRA, the assessment for this domain is being conducted by an external provider. Once the key risks in this domain have been identified, this information will be updated.