Nationally Determined Contribution
We included advice on the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) for Aotearoa in our advice report to government, Ināia Tonu Nei.
Following this Ministers and some Government Departments wanted to know whether there are more opportunities to reduce emissions domestically to contribute to the NDC, than we included in our demonstration path.
To support the government’s decision making on the NDC, we provided a note on how much abatement towards an NDC might be achievable domestically. The note summarised our existing evidence from Ināia Tonu Nei, it did not contain new analysis, and the conclusions are the same.
Our advice on the NDC:
- The domestic budgets we recommended are ambitious and achievable, while being fair, inclusive and equitable, meeting the requirements under Section 5M of the Act.
- We believe the budgets can be met with technologies that are available today. If new technologies develop more quickly in the next few years, then it may be possible to reduce domestic emissions more quickly and at less cost.
- However, even in the most optimistic technology scenarios that we modelled a significant amount of offshore mitigation is needed to meet the current NDC. This is because new technology development and adoption, and behaviour change, take time. Afforestation cannot deliver sufficient removals quickly enough.
- Without rapid adoption of technologies not yet available, reducing domestic net emissions much beyond the levels set out in the recommended budgets through to 2030 is expected to cause damaging and inequitable levels of economic and social disruption.
- In the near term (over the next decade), purchasing offshore mitigation allows Aotearoa to strengthen its NDC while putting the country on the pathway to a low emissions future and managing the impacts on communities and businesses.