Acting now on the biggest climate risks can reduce New Zealand’s rising recovery costs
7 May 2026
- The national climate change risk assessment (NCCRA) sets out the priorities for decision-makers, businesses and communities to act on.
- It shows where planning and investment can make the biggest difference by addressing the most pressing risks.
- Aotearoa New Zealand faces serious risks that impact daily life, putting pressure on our water systems, homes, roads, emergency services, ecosystems, and even the way decisions are made.
- Acting sooner rather than later to address key risks will minimise the multi-billion-dollar cost of delaying climate resilience measures.
- Reducing global emissions is also needed to slow climate change, making future climate impacts easier to manage.
Focus is on the biggest risks
The 2026 national climate change risk assessment, released today, identifies the priority risk areas where action will make the biggest difference, the Climate Change Commission says.
The four key areas cover all facets of daily life: key infrastructure, communities and safety, nature and the bioeconomy, and decisions and funding.
"People across Aotearoa New Zealand are already facing more disruption from storms, rain, landslides, drought and sea-level rise,” says Climate Change Commission Chief Executive, Jo Hendy.
“Fifteen years ago, damaging storm events happened about once a month – now it’s more like once a week.
“In the first few months of this year alone, we’ve seen just how devastating these hazards can be for people’s lives.
“By focusing on where risk is highest, impact is greatest, and making sure we get the basics right, a co-ordinated plan can be created that strengthens the country’s resilience.
“With more extreme weather and global pressures like the energy crisis, building resilience has never been more important.
“It’s also important to keep contributing to the global effort to reduce emissions so climate change doesn’t get significantly worse.”
Acting now reduces long-term costs
The Commission’s analysis suggests acting now will reduce costs across the economy.
“Focusing effort and investment on a few key things will have much wider benefits and help bring the overall cost down,” Hendy says.
“More than half a million buildings are already exposed to inland flooding, with at least $235 billion at risk.
“If we build homes that can cope with floods and extreme weather, we’re not just protecting the building, we’re protecting people’s health, keeping essential services running, and helping keep those homes insurable.
“If we don’t act, costs could run into the billions and affect every part of people’s lives.”
Getting the national policy settings right
“Communities are already doing the hard work locally - now we need to make sure the national settings are right to back that up.
“A lot of effort goes into recovery, which matters – but it can’t come at the expense of making things more resilient.
“We currently have an imbalance where 97% of government spend is on responding to natural hazards and only 3% on building resilience.
“By getting it right at the national level, and turning our focus to building climate resilience, we can break the cycle of react and recover,” Hendy says.
Most significant risks in the 2026 national climate change risk assessment
- Risks to water infrastructure: Climate change will put increasing pressure on every part of the water system, which is already under strain. Reforms underway are an opportunity to embed resilience, without which this risk may be the first to reach an extreme level within the next 25 years.
- Risks to buildings: Buildings across Aotearoa New Zealand are exposed to a range of climate-related hazards from heat to flooding, which threaten both their structure and whether they can still be used. This increases insurance issues and challenges with communities being displaced.
- Risks to road and rail networks: Climate hazards are putting increasing pressure on the country’s road and rail networks, causing both short-term and lasting damage. These networks keep communities and the economy connected and goods moving. When they’re hit, it affects communities and the wider economy and prevents access for emergency services and the repair of power and telecommunication lines.
- Risks to social and community wellbeing: There are increasing impacts on people’s wellbeing because of climate change, particularly to mental health and social cohesion. The human and financial costs of this are high, with little in place to prevent distress and uncertainty from climate change impacts.
- Risks to emergency management: The country’s emergency management system is under pressure and may struggle to respond to the increasing frequency, severity and extent of disasters that can result from climate hazards.
- Ngā mea hirahira o te ao Māori – risks in the Māori world: Climate change will impact Māori in distinct ways, from cultural practices to health and wellbeing to legal rights. Longstanding factors such as land marginalisation and alienation make these impacts worse, reducing options for adapting to the changing climate.
- Risks to ecosystems and biodiversity: Climate change is increasing pressure on our rivers, forests, coast and oceans, and the native plants and animals that keep them healthy. When these natural systems are under pressure, the effects are felt across our communities and economy though things like air, water, and soil quality, human health, recreation, and jobs that depend on nature.
- Risks to forestry: Climate-related impacts – from extreme weather, drought, and wildfire through to new pests and disease – affect managed and production forests. This threatens the economy and emissions reductions targets.
- Risks to central and local government funding: As climate impacts intensify, both central and local government face higher costs for disaster response, infrastructure repair, welfare and health services, and long-term adaptation. Lack of direction on cost-sharing and lack of investment result in councils and communities having fewer options, pushing higher costs onto future generations.
- Risks to decision-making and delivery: As climate change hazards intensify, the country is caught up in successive urgent responses that make decision-making and delivery more complex.
The above are the most significant risks identified in this assessment. See below for a full table of all risks we identified and how they scored (or open it in a new window).
Learn more
- Explore our full assessment, companion reports, supporting evidence and case studies
- Read the executive summary
- Register for a webinar or zui exploring this risk assessment.
Note to Editors
- The Minister of Climate Change must respond, within two years from publication of the risks assessment, with a new national adaptation plan, which addresses the most significant risks.
- The Commission’s role is to advise on implementation of the adaptation plan, and measure effectiveness.
- Our next progress report on the current national adaptation plan is due by August 2026, which will both review progress under the existing plan, and give advice for the next one.