Report on the potential domestic contribution to the second nationally determined contribution
In June 2024 the Government requested a report on domestic emissions reductions that could be achieved as part of the second nationally determined contribution.
Overview
The second nationally determined contribution (NDC2) will set Aotearoa New Zealand’s commitment under the Paris Agreement to reducing net greenhouse gas emissions from 2031–35. It replaces the previous NDC which covered the period 2021-2030.
In June 2024, the Government requested a report from the Commission on the levels of domestic emissions reduction that Aotearoa New Zealand could feasibly achieve as part of NDC2. This request was made under Section 5K of the Climate Change Response Act.
An NDC can also be met through supporting international action, for example by paying for emissions reduction overseas. This international component is outside the scope of the Minister’s request to the Commission.
The report is due to the Minister of Climate Change by 31 October 2024.
This request replaces the request and terms of reference that the Commission received for NDC advice in 2023. Information about the previous request is available here.
Request and terms of reference
Key dates
- Initial request for advice on second nationally determined contribution (NDC2) sent by the Minister: 9 October 2023
- Commission responds that additional resources will be required to deliver to the scope requested: 12 October 2023
- Commission notes in Briefing to the Incoming Minister that work paused on NCD2 until resources are confirmed: 6 December 2023
- Commission works with officials to identify what can be achieved within existing resources and timeframe: April–June 2024
- New request received with focus on domestic contribution: 17 June 2024
- Finalised terms of reference received: 6 August 2024
- Report: due by 31 October 2024
- Publication of the report: within 20 working days of delivery
- Government to advise second nationally determined contribution: February 2025
Scope of this work
The Minister has asked the Commission, under section 5K of the Climate Change Response Act, to provide advice focusing on the domestic contribution to the country’s second nationally determined contribution.
An NDC can also be met through supporting international action, for example by paying for emissions reduction overseas. This international component is outside the scope of the Minister’s request to the Commission.
Timeframe
We will deliver our report to the Minister by 31 October 2024. This allows time for our analysis to inform the Government’s decision on NDC2, which is due in February 2025.
Our role and approach
Our role is to provide independent, impartial, evidence-based advice to the Government. The Government’s role is to make the decision on what the NDC2 will be.
Given the alignment with our other current work, we will base our analysis on the modelling work used in our recent draft advice on the fourth emissions budget and our discussion document on the 2050 target review.
Why NDCs matter
NDCs are important because they represent Aotearoa New Zealand's contribution towards the collective global effort on climate change, which the country signed up for under the Paris Agreement.
Section 5K requests and the terms of reference
This request from the Minister was made under section 5K of the Climate Change Response Act, which allows the Government of the day to request advice on specific topics at any time, following consultation with the Commission on the Terms of Reference. We are satisfied the Minister’s request meets the requirements of the Act.
The Climate Change Response Act requires the Commission to publish the Terms of Reference as soon as practicable once the request has been made.
Previous NDC advice
We provided advice to the Minister on Aotearoa New Zealand's first NDC. This was included in our first advice to the Government, Ināia tonu nei: A low emissions future.
Related information
Briefing to the Incoming Minister, December 2023
2023 request
The current request replaces the request and terms of reference that the Commission received for NDC advice in 2023.
Documents related to that previous request are available below.
- Terms of Reference – Advice to inform Aotearoa New Zealand’s second Nationally Determined Contribution [PDF – 165 KB]
- Letter from Minister requesting advice from the Commission to inform Aotearoa’s second Nationally Determined Contribution [PDF – 75.8 KB]
- Letter from the Commission accepting the Terms of Reference to inform Aotearoa’s second Nationally Determined Contribution [PDF – 270 KB]
More information about the previous request: News: Minister requests advice to inform the Government’s global emissions commitment