Our upcoming work

The Commission's role is to produce independent advice to the Government on the direction of policy that will enable Aotearoa New Zealand to respond and achieve a low-emissions, climate-resilient future. Between September 2022 and December 2024, we will be developing and delivering a wide range of advice to Government – from advice on the direction of the next emissions reduction plan and next emissions budget, to a review of Aotearoa New Zealand’s climate targets, through to monitoring Government’s progress on climate mitigation and climate adaptation.

Climate advice picking up speed

In the past two years we’ve provided advice on the first three emissions budgets, the direction of the emissions reduction plan, agricultural emissions pricing, and NZ Emissions Trading Scheme settings. We are now expanding our work programme and will be delivering our first monitoring reports on the Government’s progress on reducing emissions and adapting to our already changing climate.

Engagement and consultation: how you can get involved

Engagement is at the heart of what we do. We will be engaging widely with people on our advice, and our early engagement with key stakeholders is already underway. Some of our work will also involve formal public consultation.

There will be many opportunities to feed into our work. We will keep this page updated with the latest information about formal opportunities to get involved, as we lock in details for each of these pieces of advice.

As always, if you would like to speak to us, please send us an email at hello@climatecommission.govt.nz.

If you have an event where you would like someone from the Commission to come and speak to you, please email engagements@climatecommission.govt.nz.

Provide advice for preparation of Emissions Reduction Plans

Due December 2023

To ensure that Aotearoa New Zealand keeps moving towards its climate targets, we give advice to the Minister every five years on the direction of its next emissions reduction plan. We first provided this advice in Ināia tonu nei in May 2021, and the Government responded by setting its first emissions reduction plan for 2022–2025.

Government policy needs to keep pace with what is required to meet Aotearoa New Zealand’s emissions reduction targets. The second emissions budget (for 2026–2030) has been set, but the Government needs a plan to deliver on it.

We produced our draft advice on the direction of policy for the Government’s second emissions reduction plan (for 2026–2030), and consulted on it between 26 April and 20 June 2023.

We will present our final advice to the Minister of Climate Change by 31 December 2023.

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Advice on ETS unit limits and price control settings for 2025–2029

Due March 2024

Each year, the Commission must provide advice to Minister on the New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme (NZ ETS), including recommending limits on units available each year in the NZ ETS, and price control settings. The Commission’s advice on this will cover a rolling five-year period, with settings recommended for each year.

The purpose of our advice is to help ensure that the NZ ETS operates effectively and in accordance with the emissions budgets, nationally determined contributions, and the 2050 target (as set out in the Climate Change Response Act 2002). Our advice feeds into the Government’s annual update of the regulations that set limits and price control settings for the NZ ETS.

Browse our previous advice on the NZ ETS.

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Monitor and report on progress towards meeting emissions budgets, emissions reduction plans and the 2050 target

First annual report due mid 2024

First periodic report due 2027

The Commission has an important role in monitoring and reviewing Aotearoa New Zealand's progress towards its emissions reduction goals. That includes monitoring progress towards meeting emissions budgets, emissions reduction plans and the 2050 target. The insights and lessons learned from monitoring can in turn help inform the Commission’s future advice on opportunities to reduce emissions, limitations in Aotearoa New Zealand's approach and gaps in progress.

The Climate Change Response Act 2002 provides that there are two aspects to the Commission's monitoring function.

First, the Commission will provide an annual progress report that will include, for the most recent year of the emissions budget period for which data is available:

• measured emissions and removals for that year;
• the latest projections of current and future emissions and removals; and
• an assessment of the adequacy of the Government’s Emissions Reduction Plan and progress in its implementation, including any new opportunities to reduce emissions.

The Commission’s first annual progress report is due in mid-2024, timed to follow the release of the New Zealand Greenhouse Gas Inventory report.

Second, the Commission will provide a report at the end of each emissions budget period (approximately every five years), evaluating progress made in an emissions budget period, including:

• an evaluation of how well the emissions reduction plan has contributed to progress;
• recommendations on any banking and borrowing across emissions budgets that would be appropriate; and
• an assessment of the amount of offshore mitigation required to meet the emissions budget for that period.

These less frequent reports must be prepared no later than two years after the end of the relevant emissions budget period.  With New Zealand’s first emissions budget covering the period 2022–2025, the first of these retrospective reports is expected to come out in 2027.

With the Commission’s early focus having been on the provision of advice, it is now turning attention to the scope and shape of its monitoring function, in preparation for reporting in 2024. We expect that identifying the right things to measure and monitor at a wide systems level, and how best to do that, will be a learning journey. There are experiences and lessons from others internationally, but we will need to create a monitoring function that reflects Aotearoa New Zealand’s own unique circumstances.

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Progress reports on the National Adaptation Plans

Due August 2024

Every two years, the Commission will provide a progress report on the implementation, progress and effectiveness of the Government’s National Adaptation Plan. The first progress report is due in August 2024.

Each progress report must:

• assess the progress of implementation of the Plan
• judge how well the Plan achieves its objectives and responds to risks
• identify barriers to implementation and effectiveness, and how those can be managed
• include any other relevant matters
• consider the issues, where relevant, listed under section 5M of the Climate Change Response Act.

Over the next 12 months, we will be focused on building enduring relationships with our adaptation stakeholders and gathering the evidence we need as part of this role. We will be developing our approach to monitoring the Government’s progress on adaptation, including what our monitoring framework and criteria will be, and how it aligns with our mitigation monitoring work. We are looking at how others in Aotearoa New Zealand and internationally have approached similar tasks to learn from their experiences.

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Provide advice for preparation of emissions budgets

Due December 2024

For emissions budgets, the Commission’s role is to provide independent evidence-based advice on what the budgets should be to help Aotearoa New Zealand meet its climate targets. We don’t set the budgets ourselves.

Every five years, we produce independent expert advice on the system of emissions budgets to step Aotearoa New Zealand towards the 2050 emissions reductions targets. In our first advice to Government, Ināia tonu nei, we provided advice on the first three emissions budgets (from 2022 to 2035). These have now been set by Government.

In our advice for future emissions budgets, we will advise the Minister on:

• The recommended quantity of emissions in the next budget period, stating the amount by which emissions of each greenhouse gas should be reduced to meet the relevant emissions budget and the 2050 target
• The rules that will apply to measure progress towards meeting the emissions budget and the 2050 target.
• How the emissions budget, and the 2050 target, may realistically be met, including by pricing and policy methods.
• the proportions of an emissions budget that is to be met by domestic emissions reductions and domestic removals alongside the appropriate limit on offshore mitigation that may be used to meet an emissions budget

In providing emissions budget advice, we will have regard to a number of matters, including whether the budget we are advising on is technically and economically achievable. The exact matters that we must consider are set out in section 5ZC of the Climate Change Response Act.

When we prepare emissions budget advice, we will also assess if there is a need to revise any notified emissions budgets (that have not yet started) due to methodological changes in the way emissions are measured and reported or significant changes to the considerations on which the emissions budget was based.

The next emissions budgets advice will be for the period 2036 – 2040. It is due to the Minister responsible for Climate Change by the end of 2024.

Read more about this area of work.

We will be consulting on the draft budgets. The likely window for this is March – May 2024.

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Review of inclusion of emissions from international shipping and aviation in 2050 target

Due December 2024

Currently, the 2050 target includes emissions from domestic shipping and domestic aviation (which are covered by the Paris Agreement) but excludes emissions from shipping and aviation to and from Aotearoa New Zealand. Globally, international aviation emissions are being addressed within the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) and international shipping emissions are being addressed by the International Maritime Organization (IMO).

The Commission will provide advice on whether the 2050 target should be amended to include emissions from international shipping and aviation, and if so, how the target should be amended. This advice must be provided by 31 December 2024.

Read more about this area of work.

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Review the 2050 Emissions Targets

Due December 2024

The Commission must review emissions budgets every five years starting in 2024. At the same time as this, we must provide independent expert advice on whether any changes should be made to Aotearoa New Zealand’s legislated 2050 targets. These could be changes to what the targets are, what gases they apply to, when the targets have to be met by, and how much can be met in Aotearoa New Zealand or paid for overseas.

Aotearoa New Zealand has a split-gas emissions target. This means that there are separate targets for biogenic methane and for all other gases (carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, F-gases and non-biogenic methane).

The first of the split-gas targets is to reduce biogenic methane emissions by at least 10% by 2030 compared to 2017 levels, and 24–47% by 2050 and beyond. The second of these targets is to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases, other than biogenic methane, to net zero by 2050 and beyond.

We can only recommend a change to the targets if we establish that there has been or will be significant enough change in circumstances to justify it – for example, if there is significant new evidence or a new global context for change.  You can find the exact criteria we need to consider in section 5T of the Climate Change Response Act.

Read more about this area of work.

We have not yet determined the timeframe for any consultation on the targets review.

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Advice to inform the second Nationally Determined Contribution

Due December 2024

Every country needs to set a Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) under the Paris Agreement, which aims to limit the global average temperature increase to well below 2 degrees and to pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5 degrees above preindustrial levels.

On 9 October 2023, the Minister of Climate Change confirmed his request for advice to help inform Aotearoa New Zealand's second NDC. This must be set by 2025 and will be the country’s international commitment to reducing net greenhouse gas emissions from 2031–2035. This request from the Minister was made under section 5K of the Climate Change Response Act.

Read more about this area of work.

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