Insight: Climate risk is broader than disasters

Climate risk is about more than major disasters, as Dr Karen Lavin (GM Evidence & Advice, Climate Change Commission) highlights with findings from our recent reports.

When climate risks are discussed, attention is often focused on major events such as floods, storms and droughts. But climate change is also driving gradual and cumulative changes that can permanently reshape where people live, how businesses operate, and the services communities rely on.

Climate adaptation is not just about sudden extreme events or natural hazards. It also requires responding to gradual and progressive changes such as rising sea and groundwater levels, reduced water availability and increasing temperatures across air, soil and water.

Our recently-released report National insights relevant for adaptation planning provides a national picture of climate-related exposure and vulnerability across Aotearoa New Zealand, helping to build understanding of how climate risks can evolve as conditions change. This report was released as part of our mahi on the 2026 national adaptation plan progress assessment in August.

These insights (featured in a recent webinar – see below) can help decision-makers understand where climate impacts are likely to be felt, who might be affected, and how impacts for health, the economy and the environment could play out.

It highlights that climate risk isn’t evenly distributed – and that people’s individual circumstances and capacity to cope influence how severely they may be impacted. For example, about another 600 square kilometres (about the size of Auckland City) of Aotearoa New Zealand could become exposed to a 1-in-100 year inland flood with an additional degree of climate warming.

But the area affected is only part of the picture. Disruption to roads, services, and supply chains can create indirect and cascading impacts for communities and businesses well beyond the areas directly exposed.

For example, in Thames-Coromandel today, 49% of the district’s population could become isolated due to coastal flooding. But when accounting for sea-level rise of just 0.2m, this would climb to 65%.

By 2050, 35-50% of the country's production land would become markedly drier, affecting what crops can grow as well as impacting how people manage livestock and water resources.

Most of the country will experience about twice as many extreme hot days by 2030 and three times as many by 2050, with implications for health and the suitability of our buildings and infrastructure as the climate changes.

These impacts are not limited to people directly exposed to climate hazards. Over time, changing risk profiles may also affect the affordability and availability of insurance, influencing household, community and business decisions long before a climate impact occurs.

These insights are valuable as they can help inform decisions being made today. As climate conditions change, planning decisions need to consider not only the current climate but how exposure and vulnerability may change over coming decades.

Managing climate risk means preparing for both the extreme events we face today and the longer-term changes reshaping those risks. Effective adaptation requires a broad lens, considering current impacts alongside the gradual and cumulative changes that will increasingly affect communities, infrastructure, ecosystems, services and the economy. The national insights report provides evidence to support these decisions, helping communities, businesses and government better understand and prioritise adaptation.

Dr Karen Lavin is General Manager of Evidence and Advice at the Climate Change Commission.

Related pages

• 2026 National climate change risk assessment
• 2026 Progress report: National adaptation plan
• National insights relevant for adaptation planning: Metrics on exposure and vulnerability to climate-related hazards