Updating our 2024 advice on emissions budgets
Updated advice due: March 2027
About this project
Every five years, the Commission reviews Aotearoa New Zealand's emissions budgets that have already been set, and recommends the maximum level of the next emissions budget. We provided our most recent budgets advice to the government in 2024.
Following amendments to the Climate Change Response Act in December 2025, the Commission will provide the Minister with an update to our 2024 advice on emissions budgets.
This update is due by 31 March 2027.
Why does this advice need to be updated?
The Government was originally due to respond to our advice and set the level of the fourth emissions budget by 31 December 2025.
However, in December 2025 the Climate Change Response (2050 Target and Other Matters) Amendment Bill passed into law – requiring the Commission to update its advice on the fourth emissions budget by 31 March 2027, and the Government to respond and set the budget level by 31 December 2027.
This law also:
-
changed the 2050 biogenic methane target (from a 24–47% reduction to a 14–24% reduction)
-
requires the Commission to consider the potential implications for domestic food production.
Our updated advice needs to reflect these changes.
What's happening now?
From June to September 2026, we will be engaging with people and organisations to inform our work on this update.
We requested public input 9 June–19 July 2026.
Read more about this request for input.
Following the request for input, we are engaging with people to confirm points of evidence.
We will present our advice to the Minister of Climate Change by 31 March 2027.
- The opportunities for emissions reductions and removals and the risks and uncertainties associated with these
- Projections of emissions over the budget period
- Scientific advice and existing and anticipated technological developments
- The need for budgets that are ambitious but likely to be technically and economically achievable
- The likely impacts of meeting the emissions budget, including on adapting to climate change, and how these impacts are distributed across regions, communities and generation to generation
- Economic circumstances and impacts on Government finances
- The implications, or potential implications, of land-use change for communities
- The implications, or potential implications, for domestic food production
- Relevant international obligations and agreements, including response to climate change by other countries who are parties to the Paris Agreement or the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
- What does the ambition change for the biogenic methane Target change mean for the appropriate level of the fourth emissions budget?
- What are the implications of the new requirement to consider implications for domestic food production?
- What are some other notable changes for the NZ economy and emissions since 2024?
Emissions budgets set a pathway for Aotearoa New Zealand to meet its 2050 emissions reduction target with each budget lower than the previous. Each budget sets the maximum quantity of emissions of all greenhouse gases permitted during a particular five-year period.
Every five years, the Commission produces independent expert advice on what the emissions budgets should be to help Aotearoa New Zealand meet its 2050 emissions reductions target. Read more about our advice on emissions budgets.
In 2024 we provided advice on setting the level of the fourth emissions budget (2036-2040) and recommended revising the emissions budgets already in place.
Explainer: FAQ: What are emissions budgets?
The Act sets out a number of matters which the Commission must consider when it is determining the budget levels it recommends. The Minister must also consider these matters when setting an emissions budget. The full list can be found in section 5ZC of the Climate Change Response Act (2002).
The range of matters the Commission must consider is broad and covers:
This reflects the narrow scope of the update, which is focused on the 2050 target change, considerations for domestic food production, and accounting for any significant changes since 2024.
We encourage all participants to provide their response by the 19 July deadline to ensure your views are fully considered, reflected in published outputs, and available to inform any follow-up engagement. Responses can be as detailed or as brief as you wish, and you do not need to complete every question to take part. We will review the responses, and check for gaps, particularly for the main changes: the lowering of the methane target ambition and food production.
We will then seek further feedback if needed to fill any gaps in the evidence.
The main changes in this updated advice will be around biogenic methane and how we consider food production, so it’s helpful to have people’s thoughts on those. The questions you will be asked about this are:
Download a copy of all questions in this survey [PDF, 423 KB]
Domestic food production is not clearly defined in the Climate Change Response Act, but in our engagements we are considering food that we export.
We’d like input from you on how we should approach this, alongside any evidence and insights you have on the links between domestic food production, emissions and exports.
We used two different models in 2024, one is Energy in NZ, showing how emissions reductions will flow through to the economy, the second is the C-plan equilibrium model, which shows how emissions reduction will impact on GDP.
In the update to our advice, we’ll look to add the NZ Farm model which looks at impacts for farming and land use at a regional level and in more detail than other models. We are open to feedback on more generally what we should be considering.
This refers to a sustained change or changes that are likely to materially or permanently affect the level of emissions reductions that are appropriate. In previous advice, an example of a notable change was that less trees were planted than had originally been forecasted.
We welcome your thoughts and evidence on what notable changes should be considered since our last advice in 2024. We will consider this when we update our modelling. We’ll also consider if the second budget (2026 - 2030) and third emissions budget (2031 – 2035) should be updated as a result.
Does the recent Middle East conflict meet the bar?
The effect of the Middle East conflict on fossil fuel prices and supply may be considered. It’s not clear if the current disruption will have longer term effects on the trajectory for fossil fuels and renewables. We plan to use the latest Government projections as one input for our advice.
Do emissions policy changes meet the bar?
Although policies can gradually affect what emissions reductions are possible over time (such as research into new technology), we wouldn’t consider a policy change itself a notable change.
Do developments in the Crown-Māori relationship meet the bar?
Although the Commission is not itself part of the Crown, the Crown-Māori relationship is something we consider in all our advice. However, this consideration doesn’t have a direct, quantified link to the budget levels in our analysis, and it is not an area where we would try to judge if there had been a notable change since 2024.
Do new technologies such as methane reducing technologies or genetic solutions meet the bar?
New technologies can meet the threshold but in our previous advice we already accounted for methane reducing technologies, so this won’t be considered a notable change in our update.
As this is an update to existing advice, we won’t be publishing a full new draft for feedback.
However, we do want to ensure that we maximise any public input with the time we have available.
Any evidence or insights shared with us that don’t fit in the scope of this project will still form part of our evidence base for consideration in our other monitoring projects.