Reviews of the 2050 emissions target
Next due: 2029
Every five years, we review Aotearoa New Zealand's emissions reduction target and provide advice to the government on whether or not it should be changed. These reviews are produced alongside our advice on emissions budgets.
Our next review is due in 2029.
Previous reports
About these reviews
To ensure that Aotearoa New Zealand's emissions reduction target remains fit for purpose, we are required to review it every five years, and provide independent expert advice on whether any changes should be made.
These reviews report is required under sections 5S and 5T of the Climate Change Response Act 2002.
The passing of the Climate Change Response (2050 Target and Other Matters) Amendment Bill in December 2025 changed the 2050 methane component of the target, and added a requirement for the Commission to do a specific review of this component in 2040.
When can the Commission recommend a change?
The bar for change is high – we can only recommend a change to the emissions reduction target if:
- there has been or likely will be a significant change since 2019 in specific criteria as they relate to climate change – for example, if there is significant new evidence or a new global context for change; and
- we are satisfied that this significant change justifies a change to the target.
- significant change has occurred, or is likely to occur, since the commencement of this section to 1 or more of the following, as they relate to climate change:
- global action:
- scientific understanding of climate change:
- New Zealand’s economic or fiscal circumstances:
- New Zealand’s obligations under relevant international agreements:
- technological developments:
- distributional impacts:
- equity implications (including generational equity):
- the principal risks and uncertainties associated with emissions reductions and removals:
- social, cultural, environmental, and ecological circumstances; and
- the Commission is satisfied that the significant change justifies the change to the target.
The Commission may only recommend a change to the 2050 target if —
What changes can the Commission recommend?
If we consider that a change to the target is justified, we must advise the Government on how the target should be altered.
We can recommend changes to:
- when the target has to be met by
- the level of emissions reduction required
- what gases the target applies to
- how the target should be met (for example, whether there should be limits on removals or offshore mitigation)
What happens next
We advise the Minister of Climate Change of the outcome of our review at the same time as we provide our advice on setting emissions budgets. The Minister presents this to Parliament, and we publish it on our website.
If we have recommended a change to the target, the Minister has 12 months to advise the Commission in writing of the Government's response.
This written response must include reasons for any departure from our recommendations, and must also be presented to Parliament and published.
Related info
FAQ: The 2050 target