Drafts and discussion documents
2021 Draft advice for consultation
The draft advice that became our 2021 report, Ināia tonu nei.
1 February 2021
About this report
These are draft advice and evidence reports the Commission released in 2021 to support consultation between 1 February and 28 March 2021.
This page provides:
- The draft advice report and a statement on our approach to developing advice on policy direction
- An evidence report setting out the evidence we drew on
- Data and modelling we used in our work
Following consultation, this draft advice was finalised and became Ināia tonu nei, our first package of advice to Government.
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Download draft advice report [PDF - 4 MB]
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Download draft advice report [Microsoft Word - 4.37 MB)
The Government is required to develop an emissions reduction plan, outlining what it intends to do to make sure the first emissions budget is met. Our role is to provide independent evidence-based advice to Government on the direction of policy in the emissions reduction plan.
This paper outlines the approach we took in developing our draft advice on policy direction.
Our approach to developing advice on policy direction [PDF, 446 KB]
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INTRODUCTION - Download Introduction
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Chapter 1: The science of climate change - Download Chapter 1
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Chapter 2: What are other countries doing? - Download Chapter 2
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Chapter 3: How to measure progress - Download Chapter 3
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Chapter 4: Reducing emissions - opportunities and challenges across sectors - Download Chapter 4
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Chapter 4a: Reducing emissions – opportunities and challenges across sectors - Download Chapter 4a
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Chapter 4b: Reducing emissions - opportunities and challenges across sectors - Download Chapter 4b
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Chapter 4c: Reducing emissions – opportunities and challenges across sectors - Download Chapter 4c
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Chapter 4d: Reducing emissions – opportunities and challenges across sectors - Download Chapter 4d
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Chapter 5: Removing carbon from our atmosphere - Download Chapter 5
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Chapter 6: Perspectives from Tangata Whenua: Considering emissions reductions and removals from a Te Ao Māori view - Download Chapter 6
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Chapter 7: Where are we currently heading? - Download Chapter 7
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Chapter 8: What our future could look like - Download Chapter 8
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Chapter 9: Which path could we take? - Download Chapter 9
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Chapter 10: Requests under s5K relating to the NDC and biogenic methane - supporting evidence - Download Chapter 10
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Chapter 11: Introduction: What could this mean for New Zealanders? - Download Chapter 11
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Chapter 12: How we earn our way in the world - Download Chapter 12
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Chapter 13: Households and communities - Download Chapter 13
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Chapter 14: Environment and ecology - Download Chapter 14
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Chapter 15: The mitigation – adaptation link - Download Chapter 15
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Chapter 16: Our approach to policy - Download Chapter 16
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Chapter 17: The direction of policy for Aotearoa - Download Chapter 17
- The C-PLAN modelling was undertaken before the most recent update to government agencies’ greenhouse gas emissions projections, and drew mainly on projections from 2019. For this and other reasons, the current policy reference case in the C-PLAN modelling exercise differs to that in our bottom-up scenarios provided above.
- This modelling was also undertaken before the Commission's path to 2035 was determined, and none of the model runs align directly with our proposed path or emissions budget recommendations. In our advice, we have used transition paths 3 and 4 to provide a range for the potential impacts associated with our path and budgets.
- Where the term "carbon prices" is used in the results summary, this refers to modelled emissions values and does not represent prices in the existing ETS scheme.
- This modelling exercise was complementary to ENZ, our main modelling tool. The purpose was to draw further insight and validate the approach undertaken in ENZ.
- There are short term market dynamics which are not reflected in this modelling. For example, market prices are currently being impacted by low hydro storage and high gas prices (as of February 2021) – these dynamics are not reflected in these results.
- This modelling exercise was completed in November 2020. Since this time the electrification scenarios developed in ENZ and presented in the 2021 Draft Advice and Evidence Reports have been further refined. The scenarios shown in this document bound the final scenarios shown in the advice report, but they are not exactly equivalent.
Key assumptions and sources of data for our current policy reference case are outlined in Chapter 7: Where are we currently heading? of the Evidence report.
Key assumptions and sources of data for our four scenarios are outlined in Chapter 8: What our future could look like of the Evidence report.
Key assumptions for our preferred path are outlined in Chapter 9: Which path could we take? of the Evidence report.
2021 draft advice report charts and data.xlsx contains the underlying data for all of the figures in the Commission’s 2021 Draft Advice report.
2021 draft advice scenarios dataset.xlsx contains further data for our proposed path to 2035 and the other scenarios featured in our draft advice and evidence reports, for those who want to dive deeper into the numbers.
Technical assumptions in ENZ – energy and transport.xlsx: contains more detailed technical assumptions for the energy and transport sectors used in our scenarios model, ENZ.
Technical assumptions in ENZ – land and waste.xlsx: contains more detailed technical assumptions for the agriculture, forestry and waste sectors used in our scenarios model, ENZ.
C-PLAN model results summary.pdf: a slide deck from our modelling consultants introducing the Commission’s C-PLAN model and summarising the results we drew on for our draft advice.
C-PLAN results dataset for 2021 draft advice.xlsx: contains results (and some inputs) from the C-PLAN model that we drew on in our draft advice.
C-PLAN inputs for 2021 draft advice.xlsx: updated 9 March 2021 to include additional information on technology costs, sector constraints, and agricultural emissions intensity.
Please note that:
DIM-E results dataset for 2021 draft advice.xlsx: contains results from the distributional impacts employment model (DIM-E) that we drew on in our draft advice.
Note that a major input to this work is modelling results from C-PLAN, and so the same caveats that apply to the C-PLAN work (as described above) also apply to these results.
Our proposed emissions budgets use evidence from economic models. Experts from Aotearoa and around the world have reviewed these models and agreed that they are high quality and up for the job.
The experts said that they were “impressed by both the scope and detail of the modelling efforts, and believe that these provide a robust quantitative framework to support ambitious climate policy proposals for Aotearoa”. Our economy wide model C-PLAN was also described as being ‘best in class’.
The reviews give us confidence that our models help us to produce the best possible evidence to support our proposed emissions budgets. The reviews can be accessed here:
Weitzel Vandyck Model Review.pdf
Stroombergen Model Review Part 1.pdf
Stroombergen Model Review Part 2.pdf
Hafstead Model Review Part 1.pdf
Hafstead Model Review Part 2.pdf
This presentation was used in our pre-consultation modelling webinar which you can watch here.
If you don’t want to watch the full webinar recording but are interested in how the Commission has been building the evidence to support our future advice, you can look through the slides: Our modelling approach
Electricity market modelling results summary.pdf: a slide deck summarising the key results from the electricity market modelling we performed using Energy Link’s electricity market modelling tools.
Electricity market modelling datasets.xlsx: contains raw results from the electricity market modelling, a summary of inputs and scenario and sensitivity descriptions.
Please note that: